July 11th, 2024
Keegan Matheson
@KeeganMathesonThis story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
The Blue Jays have gotten it right with their rotation for a few years now. It’s their prospect depth that’s lagged behind, a problem covered up by durable veterans in the big leagues.
That won’t last forever. Players get older, windows close and, eventually, the Blue Jays will need to support this rotation from within.
One of this organization’s rare success stories on the pitching side in 2024 has been No. 23 prospect Fernando Perez, who is making every case to climb this list when we do a midseason re-rank following the MLB Draft. Over the past year, Perez has gone from a prospect curiosity to a legitimate arm in this system, and at just 20 years old, the Nicaraguan has suddenly made the jump to the Futures Game, which will be played Saturday at Globe Life Field in Arlington.
Perez has posted a 3.48 ERA over 14 starts (75 innings), leaning on a fastball that sits in the 91-94 mph range, with a slider, curveball and changeup. Pair that arsenal with Perez’s advanced feel for pitching, which has always been his standout trait as a prospect, and you have a young pitcher with a very high floor.
How high is Perez’s ceiling, though? How big is the upside?
To make another jump in his development, Perez would need to show the Blue Jays he can miss a few more bats, but his excellent control and low walk rate help to offset the fact he doesn’t blow people away. There aren’t many unforced errors when it comes to Perez, and with a clear path to getting his workload up over 100 innings this season, he’s showing the durability this organization covets in starters.
As much as any club loves to see their top prospects light up the radar gun, the Blue Jays’ current MLB rotation shows the value of consistency. Starters like José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi are as reliable a quartet as you’ll find in baseball, which has saved this team’s limited depth from being exposed. Manager John Schneider, looking at development in the Minor Leagues, sees a shift back in that direction, prioritizing experience.
“I think the more innings you throw, the better,” Schneider said. “When you’re in the Minor Leagues, let them throw. That’s how you learn. You’re not learning in a lab. You’re not learning in a bullpen. You’re not learning with a TrackMan behind you. You learn how to pitch, you learn how to compete and you learn how to navigate situations.”
The Futures Game will be another step in Perez’s development, and he'll be surrounded by many prospects who are older and more advanced. The “high floor” tag can be used as a backhanded compliment at times, because it tends to suggest a prospect doesn’t have a star-caliber ceiling, but the Blue Jays still have so much time with Perez.
Beyond the Ricky Tiedemanns of the world, this organization needs a prospect to skyrocket into their plans for 2026 and beyond. Perez is right on track.
Triple-A Buffalo Bisons
No. 15 prospect Chad Dallas had a great camp, pushing himself into the depth picture. Since then, he’s posted a 6.92 ERA over 12 starts in Triple-A, forcing the Blue Jays to look elsewhere when they’ve needed another arm. He’ll need to take this season’s lessons and use them to rebound in 2025, when the door should still be wide open for him to win a depth role as the No. 7, No. 8 or No. 9 starter.
Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats
For a time, No. 9 prospect Adam Macko was the pitching success story down on the farm. He was just placed on the IL in Double-A after experiencing some left forearm soreness in his last outing, but as long as that’s nothing major, Macko still feels like one of the most important prospects in this system.
High-A Vancouver Canadians
Good injury news? For the Blue Jays?
No. 10 prospect Kendry Rojas was just activated off the IL and gave the Canadians 3 2/3 innings of scoreless ball on Tuesday, striking out six. The 21-year-old lefty is an exciting physical projection and has shown flashes of a very encouraging uptick in velocity at points this season.
Single-A Dunedin Blue Jays
Full credit to No. 17 prospect Juaron Watts-Brown, who was just promoted to High-A Vancouver, but made his first 12 starts with Dunedin. The right-hander dipped in our rankings entering 2024, but posted a 3.43 ERA with 74 strikeouts over 57 2/3 innings in the Florida State League.
